Technology investment decision-making under uncertainty

Technology Investment Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Mobile Payment Systems

Innovations in the mobile payments industry provide potentially profitable investment opportunities for banks. Nonetheless, significant uncertainties are associated with decision-making for this IT investment context, regarding future market conditions, technology standards, and consumer and merchant responses, especially their willingness to adopt. As a result, traditional capital budgeting ap...

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...

The Uncertainty Decision-Making of ERP Investment

Investment in ERP projects has become a dominant part of IT investment of many enterprises. Traditional approaches used for such project evaluation are mainly based on Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV). However these approaches completely lack the ability to deal with the uncertainties in decision making process of the ERP investment. On the base of risk and uncertain an...

Decision Making under Extreme Uncertainty

Beliefs about an unknown distribution can be defined as a measure on the space of probability density functions. This paper (1) characterizes the set of beliefs that satisfy invariance postulates (2) establishes that updating invariant beliefs leads to a posterior distribution with tail asymptotically approaching 1 x(lnx)n . Note to seminar participant at Wharton: Part I of this paper is primar...